Presidential Succession

The organization Jesus established during his earthly ministry was a kingdom Luke 12:31-32.

Kingdoms are generally passed on through hereditary succession rather than through committees, conclaves, conferences, conventions, councils, etc. People nor their representatives generally do not vote for a new king.

If the religious organization to which you belong chooses its new leader through a human process, you are justified in asking if it really is the kingdom of God on the earth.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, which we affirm is the kingdom of God on the earth, D&C 65:1-6 selects its new leader through a divine process.

Quorum of the 12 as of December 7, 2023

Men are called to the Quorum of the 12 Apostles in seniority order. At the death of the current president,  the senior apostle in seniority, not biological age, becomes the new president. Through His control over life and death, God literally decides who the next President of the Church will be. 

At any given time, some apostles may serve in the First Presidency, so there can be more than 12 living apostles. Currently, there are 15 living apostles.

1. Russell M. Nelson, age 99, is President of the Church. He was ordained an apostle on April 7, 1984.
2. Dallin H. Oaks, age 91, is President of the Quorum of the 12 and First Counselor in the First Presidency. If he is living when President Nelson dies, Elder Oaks will become the next President of the Church. He was ordained an apostle on May 3, 1984.
3. Jeffrey R. Holland, age 83, is Acting President of the Quorum of the 12. He was ordained an apostle on June 23, 1994.
4. Henry B. Eyring, age 90, is Second Counselor in the First Presidency. He was ordained an apostle on April 1, 1995.
5. Dieter F. Uchtdorf, age 83, was ordained an apostle on October 2, 2004.
6. David A. Bednar, age 71, was ordained an apostle on October 7, 2004.
7. Quentin L. Cook, age 83, was ordained an apostle on October 6, 2007.
8. D. Todd Christofferson, age 79, was ordained an apostle on April 5, 2008.
9. Neil L. Andersen, age 72, was ordained an apostle on April 4, 2009.
10. Ronald A. Rasband, age 73, was ordained an apostle on October 3, 2015.
11. Gary L. Stevenson, age 68, was also ordained an apostle on October 3, 2015, but after Elder Rasband.
12. Dale G. Renlund, age 71, was also ordained an apostle on October 3, 2015, but after Elder Stevenson.
13. Gerrit W. Gong, age 70, was ordained an apostle on March 31, 2018.
14. Ulisses Soares, age 65, was also ordained an apostle on March 31, 2018, but after Elder Gong.
15. Patrick Kearon, age 62, was ordained an apostle on December 7, 2023.
    

Is there a more elegant system of leadership training leading to presidential succession on the planet? It there is, I am not familiar with it. God controls who the senior apostle is, and that person is guaranteed to have years or even decades of experience in Church leadership.

Longevity Corroborates Prophethood

The 17 prophets to date in the dispensation of the fulness of times (Ephesians 1:10) and their ages at death are:

1. Joseph Smith               38
2. Brigham Young           76
3. John Taylor                  78
4. Wilford Woodruff        91
5. Lorenzo Snow             87
6. Joseph F. Smith           80
7. Heber J. Grant             88
8. George Albert Smith   81
9. David O. McKay         96
10. Joseph Fielding Smith 95
11. Harold B. Lee              74
12. Spencer W. Kimball     90
13. Ezra Taft Benson          94
14. Howard W. Hunter       87
15. Gordon B. Hinckley     97
16. Thomas S. Monson      90
17. Russell M. Nelson        99*

*Living as of 15 Apr 2024

The mean age at death of these 17 prophets is 85. 8 of the 17 lived into their 90's and President Nelson will likely live to be 100.

This is in direct fulfillment of the following prophetic blessings mentioned in the Bible:

Exodus 20:12    "Honor thy father and thy mother, that thy days may be long upon the land"

Exodus 23:26    "The number of thy days I will fulfil"

Deuteronomy 5:33    "Ye may prolong your days in the land"

Deuteronomy 6:2    "That thy days may be prolonged"

Deuteronomy 11:21    "That your days may be multiplied"

1 Kings 3:14    "I will lengthen thy days"

Job 5:26    "Come to thy grave in a full age"

Psalm 71:9, 18    "Cast me not off in the time of old age" "When I am old and grayheaded, O God, forsake me not"

Psalm 91:16    "With long life will I satisfy him, and shew him my salvation"

Proverbs 3:2    "For length of days, and long life, and peace, shall they add to thee"

Proverbs 4:10    "The years of thy life shall be many"

Proverbs 10:27    "The fear of the Lord prolongeth days"

Proverbs 16:31     "Long life is the reward of the righteous" (Good News Translation)

Ecclesiastes 7:17    "Why shouldest thou die before thy time?"

Isaiah 40:31    "They that wait upon the Lord shall renew their strength"

John 10:10     "Life, and that they might have it more abundantly"

Ephesians 6:3    "Live long on the earth"

First Presidency in January 2018

As of 15 Apr 2024, Dallin H. Oaks is 91,

 Russell M. Nelson is 99, and Henry B. Eyring is 90

Is there another organization of global significance anywhere on earth led by 3 men in their '90's?

This analysis was inspired by a terrific video from David Alexander.

Church Growth 2023

One of my favorite parts of April General Conference is the release of the annual statistical report. At the end of 2022, Church membership stood at 17,002,461 and had grown by 1.17% year over year. At the end of 2023, Church membership stood at 17,255,391 and had grown by 1.49%. World population growth in 2023 was .88% so 2023 was the second year in a row where Church growth outpaced world growth.

Church Annual Growth Rate 1975-2023
Red Line is World Population Growth Rate

The Church is on a 3-year strong growth track post COVID.

No Kings

Jacob, ca. 550 BC, gave us one of the most audacious prophecies in the Book of Mormon in 2 Nephi 10:10-14:

• This land (North and South America - see the blog article "This Land") will be a land of inheritance for Lehi's posterity.
• The Gentiles (immigrants mainly from Europe) shall be blessed upon the land.
• This land shall be a land of liberty (see the blog article "Free Nations").
• There shall be no kings upon the land.
• This land will be fortified against all other nations.
• He that raiseth up a king against me shall perish.
• The Lord, the king of heaven, will be their king (see the blog article "Christians by Continent and Country").

When this prophecy was published to the world in 1830, monarchies and empires were the norm across most of the surface of the earth.

• The Imperial House of Japan had been in power since 660 BC.
• The Cambodian Royal Family had been on the throne since AD 68.
• Other monarchies had been in place since:
• 751 Oman
• 788 Morocco
• 804 Denmark
• 814 Spain
• 871 England
• 872 Norway
• 970 Sweden
• 1139 Portugal
• 1462 Russia
• 1526 Austria (Habsburg)
• 1544 Netherlands
• France was flirting with republican forms of government after having kings from 509 - 1795 and 1804 - 1815. The French monarchy was re-enthroned again in 1830.
• The Holy Roman Empire, dissolved in 1806, had ruled for 1,000 years since Charlemagne.
• Other empires were going strong, subjugating and colonizing vast extensions of territory beginning in:
• 1299 Ottoman Turks
• 1492 Spain
• 1604 Britain
• 1605 France
• 1644 Qing Dynasty
• 1721 Russia
• 1804 Austria

In the Americas, wars of independence had begun to change the governing dynamic. See the blog articles "Prophecy Fulfilled 015" and "1830 Americas." Brazil had opted for monarchy beginning with Dom Pedro I (known as "The Liberator") in 1822.

Dom Pedro I of Brazil (1798-1834)

So, for the Book of Mormon to announce in 1830 that attempts to establish royalty in the Americas would end badly ("he that raiseth up a king against me shall perish") it was a bold declaration, practically unprecedented in world history. Like other Book of Mormon prophecies, this one was fulfilled precisely.

King James I (James J. Strang) was coronated in 1850 and reigned over Beaver Island, Michigan until his assassination in 1856.

James I of Michigan (1813-1856)

James Jesse Strang at the height of his power ruled over 12,000 followers and counted Joseph Smith's brother, William, among his supporters.

Maximilian I of Mexico was coronated in 1864 and executed by firing squad in 1867. 

Maximilian I of Mexico (1832-1867)

The Imperial House of Brazil reigned from 1822-1889 when a coup d' etat forced Dom Pedro II (known as "The Magnanimous") into exile in Paris where he died 2 years later.

Over a dozen sovereign nations in the Americas have some form of fealty to a monarch through a voluntary Commonwealth association such as Canada to the UK, but since 1889 no absolute monarch has reigned anywhere in the New World. Those few who attempted to establish a king in the Western Hemisphere post 1822 did perish just as the Book of Mormon foretold.

I recommend Stephen Smoot's blog article about 2 Nephi 10.

Narratives

 The Book of Mormon text has a number of narratives that geographic models should accommodate or explain. Key narratives include:

Mulekite/Phoenician connection. The Mulekites likely sailed across the Atlantic Ocean in a Phoenician ship.

• The Mulekites named their big river Sidon (Alma 2:15), the name of a major Phoenician port city along with Arwad, Byblos, and Tyre.
• The Phoenicians ca. 600 BC had formidable maritime experience and capability. They were much more advanced in this area than the Kingdom of Judah. See Philip Beale's two excellent books Sailing Close to the Wind Dorchester, England: Lulworth Press (2012) and Atlantic B.C. Dorchester, England: Lulworth Press (2022).

Philip Beale's Modern Replica of Phoenician Sailing Vessel

Isolation.

• Mosiah I discovered the Mulekites whose language was unintelligible to the Nephites. At contact, both groups realized they came from Old World Jerusalem. Omni 1:14-17.
• Coriantumr, a Jaredite survivor, lived among the Mulekites for nine moons. He carved his history on a stela, but no one among the Mulekites could read it. Omni 1:20-22.

Disorientation.

• Ammon and his reconnaissance party wandered for forty days in the wilderness Mosiah 7:4.
• Limhi's 43 explorers were lost in the wilderness for many days. Mosiah 8:8, Mosiah 21:25.
• The Lamanite army dispatched to intercept Limhi and his people were lost in the wilderness. Mosiah 22:15-16, Mosiah 23:30.

Incommunicado.

• Amaleki's brother returned from Zarahemla back to Nephi with the Zeniff colony and no word from the migrants ever reached Zarahemla. Omni 1:30, Mosiah 7:1.
• Captain Moroni on the northeast front was uninformed about Helaman's military activities on the southwest front. Alma 59:1-2.
• Many people who migrated to the land northward were never heard from again. Alma 63:8.

Over Extension.

• Ca. 71 BC the Nephites achieved their territorial maximum Alma 50:23. Only 36 years later, Lamanites controlled 100% of the greater land of Zarahemla. Helaman 4:5.
• Helaman thought Nephite armies were too small to effectively hold their large territory. Alma 58:32.

Mistaken Identity.

• Limhi's 43 explorers thought they had found Zarahemla Mosiah 21:26 and King Limhi believed them for a few days until Ammon and his party arrived Mosiah 7:14.

Enigmatic Phraseology.

• The term "pure water" appears only 2 times in the text. It is obvious what the fountain of pure water was in the place called Mormon - it was a spring of some kind. Mosiah 18:5. But how do you have an entire land of pure water as in Mosiah 23:4?
• What does it mean that the Nephites under Mormon fortified the city of Desolation and environs "with all our force?" Mormon 3:6. These fortifications were so well-engineered that had the Nephite armies just stayed home the Lamanites would never have prevailed. Mormon 4:4.

Dissimilar Climate.

• The disastrous return of Zeniff and his followers from Zarahemla to Nephi is likely due to very different climates in the two places. Economic opportunity, kinship ties, access to good land, violence, and natural disasters are unlikely to have been major motives for the reverse migration. See point #12 in the blog article The Usumacinta/Sidon Correlation.

Scantily Clad Warriors.

• Armies went to battle around the new year dressed only in loincloths. Alma 43:4, 20. 

Disobedience.

• Ammaron ca. AD 324 commanded Mormon to leave the Nephite repository in hill Shim Mormon 1:4. Ca. AD 375 Mormon removed the Nephite repository from hill Shim because the area was no longer secure Mormon 4:23. Ether 15:11 tells us that Mormon created a new Nephite repository in hill Ramah/Cumorah. A useful geographic model will shed light on Mormon's willful disobedience.

Containment

• There was a point along the west coast where the Nephites could successfully prevent superior Lamanite forces from overrunning the land Northward. Alma 22:32-34, Helaman 4:7.

Lehites Sailed East

Noe Correa, a brilliant Scripture Central colleague, shared this insightful exegesis with me today. I thought about it for several hours, and am convinced Noe's conclusion is correct. When the Lehites left their Bountiful harbor in modern-day Oman, they sailed east toward India, Indonesia, and the Philippines before crossing the Pacific and landing on the west coast of Mexico or Guatemala.

Likely Route of Lehite Voyage 

Up to this point, our single clue in the text of the Book of Mormon that pointed to a Lehite landfall on the Pacific coast of the Americas was Alma 22:28 that says the place of the Lamanites' fathers' first inheritance (aka land of their first inheritance Mosiah 10:13) was bordering the seashore on the west in the land of Nephi. Almost all Mesoamerican geographers locate the land of Nephi in highland Guatemala, so west by the seashore would be in the general vicinity of Izapa near the mouth of the Suchiate River which is the boundary between modern Mexico and Guatemala.

Noe now adds a second confirming data point. His logic is:

1. Nephi quoting Zenos says the Lord in the last days will remember and gather Israel from the isles of the sea and the four quarters of the earth. 1 Nephi 19:16. Jacob explicitly says the Nephites were upon an isle of the sea. 2 Nephi 10:20-21. The Lord also refers to the posterity of Lehi on an island 2 Nephi 29:11 in one of the quarters of the earth. 
2. Nephi reiterates the prophecy that the children of Israel will be gathered from the four quarters of the earth. 1 Nephi 22:25.

3. In 1 Nephi 21:8 Nephi quotes Isaiah 49:8, but as part of his "likening" Isaiah to his people (see 1 Nephi 19:23), Nephi adds the phrase "O isles of the sea" which explicitly makes the Lord's words in the Isaiah passage refer to the Nephites.

4. Nephi, still quoting Isaiah, says the house of Israel will be gathered from the north, the west, and the land of Sinim. 1 Nephi 21:12. The earliest text we have of Isaiah is the great Isaiah scroll from the Dead Sea Scrolls, and rather than "Sinim" it says "Syene" which is Aswan in southern Egypt. So, Isaiah is referring to the house of Israel gathering from the north, west, and south. But north, west, and south are not good enough for Nephi because it leaves his people out of the picture.

5. So in 1 Nephi 21:13 Nephi inserts the phrase "for the feet of those who are in the east shall be established" to complete the quadripartite partition of the earth into four quarters. Nephi is saying that his people, the Nephites and Lamanites, are in the east relative to Isaiah's Jerusalem. This means that the Lehite voyage sailed east from the Arabian Peninsula Bountiful. Nephi literally puts words into Isaiah's mouth to reflect the location of Lehi's posterity in the prophetic geography.

My tireless colleague, Alan Miner, has a third line of reasoning that shows Lehi travelled east from Oman. 1 Nephi 17:1 says the Lehites, after leaving Nahom, travelled "nearly eastward from that time forth."  Generally eastward from Oman (17 degrees north latitude) lands you in Mexico.

Was it possible to sail west from Oman anciently? Yes. Philip Beale in his replica ship Phoenicia demonstrated that single masted square riggers ca. 600 BC could have circumnavigated Africa just as Herodotus said the Phoenicians did. On the south coast of Oman, prevailing winds are seasonal. Westerlies predominate part of the year, then easterlies the other part. See the blog articles "Where did the Mulekites land?" and "Pacific Winds and Currents."

This Land

 A previous blog article explored the likely meaning of the terms "this continent" and "this country" in Joseph Smith's day. Both could refer to the New World, the Western Hemisphere, all of North and South America. 

What did people from Joseph Smith's era mean when they used the phrase "this land?" Orson Hyde (1805-1878) gave a Fourth of July speech in Salt Lake City in 1853. His remarks are reported in Latter-day Saints Millennial Star Vol. 15 (29 October 1853) page 706. "This land" the Apostle said, "means both North and South America." 

John Taylor (1808-1887) preached a sermon in Salt Lake City on January 12, 1873 while Brigham Young was still alive. This is recorded in Journal of Discourses Vol. 15, page 279. Elder Taylor said:

"This land, North and South America, is the land of Zion, it is a choice land — the land that was given by promise from old father Jacob to his grandson and his descendants, the land on which the Zion of God should be established in the latter days."

As with "this continent" and "this country," "this land" among contemporaries of Joseph Smith could mean the entire New World.

John Taylor in Journal of Discourses

Taylor's thoughts coincide with the prophet Joseph's. Joseph Smith on July 19, 1840 said: "speaking of the land of Zion, it consists of all North and South America." See BYU Studies Vol. 19 No. 3 (Spring 1979) p. 392.

Nephi uses the phrase "this land" in an expansive, hemispheric context when he says "do ye suppose that the children of this land, which were in the land of promise, which were driven out by our fathers, do ye suppose that they were righteous?" 1 Nephi 17:33.

Nephi's Use of "This Land" in 1 Ne 17:33

Nephi was probably in modern Oman referring to modern Israel, locations that are 2,500 air kilometers distant.

In 1 Nephi 22:7 a mighty nation is referenced. That mighty nation is Spain. See the blog articles Prophecy Fulfilled 016 and Mighty Nation = Spain. "This land" in this context refers to all of Spanish America, both North and South America.

In 2 Nephi 1:1-11 Lehi prophesies about his seed in "this land" and others from multiple nations who will also be brought to "this land." The implication is "this land" refers to territory more extensive than a single modern nation. For context behind the phrase "land of liberty" in 2 Nephi 1:7 and 2 Nephi 10:11 see the blog article "Free Nations."