Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Las Vegas Odds

The father/son team of Bruce and Brian Dale, both PhD engineers, published a sensational 110 page article in Interpreter on May 3, 2019 that uses Bayesian statistical analysis to demonstrate a) the Book of Mormon is historical and b) it is set in ancient Mesoamerica.

Bruce Dale, Distinguished Professor of Chemical Engineering, Michigan State
Brian Dale, BioMedical Engineer, Siemens
Joseph Smith: The World's Greatest Guesser - Highly Recommended
The Dales analyzed 137 statements of fact from Michael D. Coe and Stephen D. Houston, The Maya (Ninth Edition), Thames & Hudson (2015), a gold standard reference work on ancient Mesoamerica.
Current, Authoritative Scholarly Source
They compared and contrasted these 137 statements of fact with corresponding statements of fact in the Book of Mormon.
Nephite Text - An Ancient American Codex
They found 131 points of agreement and 6 points of disagreement between The Maya and the Book of Mormon. Running the math, this works out to odds of billions upon billions to one that the Book of Mormon peoples shared common political, cultural/social, religious, military/warfare, physical/geographical, and technological/miscellaneous characteristics with the ancient Maya.

The smart folks at Interpreter (Dan Peterson, Allen Wyatt, Brant Gardner) anticipated a blockbuster, so they kept this article in peer review for over a year where it was polished by both Mesoamericanists and statisticians. When the provocative piece was finally published a month ago, reactions were fast and furious. Anti-Mormons masquerading behind pen names went ballistic trying to do damage control. Hyper skeptical cultural Mormons went nuts trying to invent counter explanations. True believers like me cheered loudly and long to see our favorite book so convincingly vindicated. The Dales managed the comment parade with aplomb. What is not to like about a genuine intellectual free-for-all with eternal salvific overtones?

And the comments, 300+ and counting, just keep comping. This is the most heavily commented article Interpreter has ever published. A response has just been posted (agrees with the conclusion, disagrees with the statistical methodology). This is a terrific article that will have a lasting impact on Book of Mormon studies. At 110 pages with appendices, footnotes, logic, and math, it is not for the faint of heart, but it is well worth the effort.